CxD #207: A Leader is revealed 🇺🇦
1. Most of the time—99% of the time— we deal with ambiguities and complexities that are like big entangled knots woven over decades and no one thread, however exquisitely pulled, will offer release.
2. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not one of those times; it is that rare exception where a corrupt, evil, anti-humanitarian warlord wishing to dominate innocent people, chose to kill and engage an unprovoked war, the most horrific and ghastly of human activities.
3. An article by Matt Taibbi asked “What is a leader?” and why have most contemporary leaders chosen fear, cowardice or a kind of canceling and silencing of all debate?
4. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and all the suffering that is already unfolding and will unfold, I also sense a collective, global sigh of relief—
A genuine Leader has emerged from the atrocities and is reminding us that living with dignity and integrity is the meaning of life: what you do when your life has meaning is you act with courage and pride and sacrifice for something beyond your immediate self-interest.
Behold! How to make Putin feel badly about himself in 10 seconds:
A Prayer for Volodymyr Zelensky is short but poignant life-is-stranger-than-fiction historical bio of how an outsider in his own country has decided to stay and die for it:
Before he became the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky played the part on television. He created and starred in a comedy series, Servant of the People. His character, a high-school history teacher, is surreptitiously recorded by one of his students as he passionately rants against the tyranny of corruption in his nation. Without his knowledge, the video goes viral. Without campaigning or even wanting the job, the teacher is improbably elected president of Ukraine. The humble everyman, out of his depths in nearly every respect, goes on to become a heroic leader of his country.
Before the attack:
5. After the attack:
6.
7. It’s not surprising to me that comedians, who till the darkness of humans to transform it into something that binds us and offers us hope and a release from tension, would be willing to die for their country. But what’s even more astounding is that this single act of courage, so calm and determined and unwavering, without the usual pomp and purple rhetoric, has motived his entire country, and seemingly the rest of the world that’s not China, to support Ukraine however they can. Sometimes it just takes one.
Astute and wise as is his way, Jon Stewart “is just shocked at the humanity ❤️ that [Ukraine] is displaying:
8. What can you do? Go here:
9. Here’s how one expert on war sees the recent events:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497512270104084483.html
So let’s try and take a trip into Putin’s mind.
A look at how Putin sees his strategy from now.
If you wanna read about the tactical battle, have a read of my previous threadUnroll available on Thread Reader
That thread pointed out that Russia was expecting ukraine to collapse and welcome them as liberators. Bit like the US et al in Iraq
But it hasn’t happened like that - the Ukrainians have fought very well, and the Russians are pretty shit. Conscripts, poorly trained, without sufficient logistics (which are utterly vital in this type of armoured blitz war).
And Zelinksy, the Ukrainian President, has been a stand-out success. What a leader.
There have been a number of knock-ons from that.
Firstly the west has finally got serious about sanctions (always more to do, but getting there). They are also ramping up weapons to Ukraine - particularly key ones like infantry portable anti tank missiles.
Great for taking out Russian logistics columns that have run out of gas
But potentially even more important is the fact that China hasn’t come down on Russia’s side.
Despite all the bonhomie before the olympics the reality is that Russia and China are VERY uneasy bedfellows who are in direct competition over Central Asia ….
…. Not to mention Russia’s Far East (Vladivostok was a Chinese city), all the resources in Siberia, and the forthcoming arctic sea routes.
All of these are major strategic fracture points between Russian and China.
So if you look at Chinese media is it being a bit like the bbc - unusual for them - in that it is scrupulously reporting both sides.
The Chinese abstained at the UNSC last night on the resolution condemning Russia, and has repeatedly said that the conflict needs to stop and resolved with negotiations.
Putin clearly thought he had Xi’s support. But I think that Putin’s actions have made Xi nervous that being too close to Russia might stop China attaining its goals.
This backsliding by China, coupled with various other things like Kazakhstan refusing a request from Russia for support (AMAZING when you think the Russians propped up the gov there a couple of months ago), and Cyprus (home of Russian money laundering) is pro-swift sanctions …
… is making putin really nervous.
Oh and his oligarch mates have lost $39bn in wealth since the war started.
And there are loads of protests in Russia.
How do we know he is nervous?
Firstly Russian TV is just showing normal chat shows this morning. This is not normal when your boys are out on a ‘peacekeeping’ mission.
The Russian internet watchdog has started restricting internet traffic. You can’t get photos or videos on Facebook anymore.
And putin has offered talks to the Ukrainians saying that neutrality for Ukraine will be enough the stop the war.
That’s quite a climb down from overthrowing the Ukrainian government.
So I wonder if we have seen, in the words of @MClarkeRUSI, ‘Peak Putin’?
I do think Putin is worried that this might be it. And that is what makes this an exceptionally dangerous moment.
Putin cannot go back to the Russian people and his oligarch mates etc with a failure. So he might try to force the issue.
Say, at the extreme, a tactical battlefield weapon to force the surrender of the Ukrainian gov.
I’m not saying this is likely, but it is probably, as management consultants say, in the options space.
So. My question is:
Are western leaders, who after a slow start are doing ok in this crisis, starting to think about how to enable Putin to climb down/leave power?
This is clearly a gamble that hasn’t worked out for Putin. But how do we stop a last roll of the dice?
10. The Ghost of Kyiv is the story of a victorious Ukranian pilot. Is it true? Comedy doesn’t need truth when the narrative makes us feel things inside that facts can’t begin to conjure. And as long as Putin had the joy of reading this headline and caption…
Stay safe. Do what you can. Join us at cxd.community to hold all this together.
Bonus soundtrack for Putin & Co:
Well, I'm grindin' my life out, steady and sure
Nothin' more wretched than what I must endure
I'm drenched in the light that shines from the sun
I could stone you to death for the wrongs that you done
Sooner or later, you make a mistake
I put you in a chain that you never will break
Legs and arms and body and bone
I pay in blood but not my own
Night after night, day after day
They strip your useless hopes away
The more I take, the more I give
The more I die, the more I live
I got somethin' in my pocket make your eyeballs swim
I got dogs could tear you limb from limb
I'm circlin' around the Southern Zone
I pay in blood but not my own
A low cards are what I've got
But I'll play this hand whether I like it or not
I'm sworn to uphold the laws of God
You can put me out in front of a firin' squad
I been out and around with the risin' men
Just like you, my handsome friend
My head's so hard, must be made of stone
I pay in blood but not my own
Another politician comin' out the abyss
Another angry beggar blowin' you a kiss
You got the same eyes that your mother does
If only you could prove who your father was
Someone must of slipped a drug in yer wine
You gulped it down and you cross the line
Man can't live by bread alone
I pay in blood but not my own
How I made it back home? Nobody knows
Or how I survived so many blows?
I been through hell, what good did it do?
You bastard! I'm supposed to respect you!
I'll give you justice, I'll fathom your purse
Show me your moral that you reversed
I hear me holler, I hear me moan
I pay in blood but not my own
You get your lover in the bed
Come here, I'll break your lousy head
Our nation must be saved and freed
You been accused of murder, how do you plead?
This is how I spend my days
I came to bury, not to raise
I'll drink my fill and sleep alone
I play in blood but not my own